Trolls and polls
In his recent article in The Atlantic, David Frum is probably right – but for the wrong reasons.
Frum calls 45 a "sham president," and it's hard to disagree with this assessment from the man who gave us the phrase "axis of evil". But his conclusion that a majority of Americans do not think much of Trump as a person is not earth-shattering.
He cites a poll conducted by AP-NORC in October 2019* that emphasizes dissatisfaction with the president by a majority of Americans; but also highlights the stark differences between Democrats and Republicans in their assessment of him. The main conclusions are enumerated in his article, and the poll questions focus on Trump's performance as president.
While it's difficult to compare results, this NBC poll from August 2016 provides a way to contrast opinions of Trump’s honesty before and after his election. One question, "Which statement(s) describes Trump?" is followed by a series of characteristics that includes "Honest & trustworthy." The October 2019 poll has a similarly constructed question with "Honest" listed as a choice.
Since the results from the two polls indicate that fewer Americans felt Trump was honest before the election, one could argue this aspect of his character, and the other negatives attributed to him by a majority of Americans as reflected in the polls, did not prevent his election. In fact, polls leading up to the 2016 election all but guaranteed a Clinton victory, and the Republicans were girding their loins for a humiliating defeat. But it turns out that a a lot of voters just didn't care, and the outcome was ultimately determined by a relatively small group of voters from three midwestern states (paywall).
Unfortunately, there are also other factors at work that may make his reelection possible:
- voter suppression is rampant and seems to be considered legitimate by our legal system
- our method of choosing the president is demonstrably undemocratic
- over 40% of eligible voters don't bother (I realize this is directly impacted by 1 and 2)
In spite of all of this, I tend to agree with the premise of the article. I have to believe voters (especially those in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are growing more fatigued by this shitshow/clusterfuck/goat-rope** every day and are sufficiently motivated to continue the work that began in 2018.
The conclusion that "Americans Aren't Rallying to Trump" is not particularly revelatory now, and it wasn't back in the fall of 2016. I think it would be more helpful if never-Trumpers like Frum would spend more time calling out the enablers and sycophants in his party rather than telling us things we already know.
*Assessing Trump's Performance
**WTF is a goat-rope?